Growing Danger of Another Devastating Imperialist War

Conflict between Imperialist Axes for a Re-division of World in their Spheres of Influence is the Cause of War

M. Aseem

The dark ominous clouds of another disastrous inter imperialist global war are gathering again. Ongoing Zionist genocide in Palestine, the Israeli attacks on Irani sites with US-NATO backing, response by Iran and its allies, closure of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to the Western shipping by Houthis, Russia-NATO war in Ukraine, increasing tension between China and US over Taiwan, after the Chip war now another round of US proposal to impose 100% levy on Chinese Electrical Vehicles as the new round of attack in the ongoing trade war, military assistance by US-NATO to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan, constant warmongering by Macron and Sunak, efforts to drive out France-US with Russian help by several countries in the Sahel region of Africa, war exercises with live ammunition by North and South Korea, Chinese navy obstructing Philippine boats in the South China Sea, constant intervention by US, Russia and Turkey in Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, etc, the conflicting claims on the potential petroleum producing area on the Venezuela-Guyana border, etc are all part of a series which is preparing the ground for a new imperialist war for re-dividing the resources and markets of the whole world in the spheres of influence of the two major opposing imperialist axes and some opportunists with imperial ambitions. Although, fearing the destruction of such an all out war, efforts are on to localize the area of operations of these wars especially away from the US soil. But, as these conflicts spread and turn more intense and deadly, the risk of some spark creating the conflagration of a full-scale global war is fast increasing.

After the attack by Hamas on October 7th, Israeli Zionists, who have been carrying out brutal repression in the Gaza Strip for decades, started a heinous genocide with the aim of ethnically cleansing the Palestinian population from the entire area. This genocide has the open support of the US led western imperialism with Genocide Joe Biden proclaiming ‘iron clad guarantees’ in support of Israel. In the meantime, the potentially very rich gasfields off the Gaza coast are being portioned out to big Western gas and oil corporates.

But the wave of anger that this ongoing genocide has generated across the world has put Israel into a corner. That’s the reason Benjamin Netanyahu was trying to start a war with Iran, both to divert attention from the growing worldwide opposition to the Israeli massacre in the Gaza Strip and to protect his rule in the face of increasing domestic political discontent. If such a war broke out, it would have become necessary for the US-led military camp to be involved in it. On the other hand, Iran is attempting to increase its influence in the region by taking advantage of the huge simmering anger among West Asian, especially Arab people, against Israel and the Western imperialist camp, as most Arab rulers connive with them.

Meanwhile, US imperialism has announced another ‘aid package’ of 95 billion dollars to the countries warring to further Western interests in the world. This whole amount will go to US armaments manufacturing companies which will supply new deadly weapons to countries like Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan etc. Other countries of the western camp like Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Japan, Australia, etc. are also involved in this work of supplying arms and the military budgets of all of them are increasing rapidly. Long-range missiles and F-16 warplanes are also being sent to Ukraine so that it can attack even the remote interior areas of Russia.

The overwhelming majority with which both the Democratic and Republican parties in the US Congress approved this law that has united Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan ‘wars’ together, shows that for the Western imperial axis these three instead of being separate theaters of war, are but three fronts of a single big global war against the anti-west imperialist axis of China, Russia and Iran challenging the Western dominance of the world. All the other battlefields we mentioned above are also the part of the same contention to re-divide the world between these two opposing imperialist axes.

In response, Russia has not only intensified its campaign to occupy the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine but has also started the destruction of its energy infrastructure by massive missile and drone attacks on the entire Ukraine and has also announced military exercises involving the use of tactical nuclear weapons. In the resource rich Sahel region of Africa, Russia has quickened it’s efforts to replace US and France domination and military bases. In Niger, Russian military contingent even entered an airforce base where 600 US military personnel were present delaying their own departure.

French President Macron is talking about sending NATO troops to Ukraine to confront Russia and Sunak in Britain is also making incendiary statements to prepare for war. After the 2014 US backed Maidan coup in Ukraine, which was earlier under the influence of Russian oligarchs,  the financial capital of western countries has invested huge capital to control the fertile agricultural land, mines and industries there. Although, hiding the real reason for the Ukrainian war, it is denounced as an invasion carried out under the dictatorship and expansionist policy of a megalomaniac villain named Putin, the real reason for war is Russian imperialist capital trying to keep the former republics of the Soviet Union in its sphere of influence and the Western imperialism trying to integrate them into the European Union and NATO. This war, which is being fought by NATO against Russia expending the lives of the Ukrainian people, is the result of the conflict between two contending imperialist powers to bring Ukraine into their own sphere of influence.

Attempt to Re-divide the World between Imperialists is the Cause of War

Western imperialist bloc claims to be fighting this bloody war to save liberal democracy from evil authoritarian onslaught. The opposing bloc of Russia China Iran are claiming to be fighting to liberate the world from Western imperialist and colonial dominance as well as for denazification. But the real reason for these ‘initial’ clashes of the Third World War is the almost continuous and ‘endless’ economic crisis and declining rate of profit forcing global capitalism to once again tear off its so-called liberal democratic mask with its own hands. It has thus once again emerged in its true naked dreaded bloodthirsty man-eater imperialist form.

On the one hand, capitalism is mercilessly tightening the noose of exploitation on the working class and the toiling people in all countries and the monopoly capital has launched a bloody campaign to dispossess small petty bourgeois owners and concentrate all wealth in the hands of the few monopoly capitalists. On the other hand, the monopoly capitalists of various countries are running a campaign to gain their sole control excluding other capitalists over the sources of raw materials and energy like fertile land, water, forests, minerals, etc in the countries around the world and also to oust other capitalists from these markets.

In this deadly struggle for domination over resources and markets, contending imperialist blocs have come into existence, which are engaged in this battle by all sorts of conspiracies and armed conflicts for comeuppance in every corner of the world. This attempt to include every corner of the world in their respective spheres of influence, these imperialists have become divided into two main axes or blocs. On the one hand, there is NATO Plus or the Western Axis led by US imperialism, which was maintaining its dominance as the major imperialist power in the so-called uni-polar world formed after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, which it named as the rules-based global order, that is, a system of rules for the plunder of the world in the interest of imperialism. During this period, capitalist intellectuals proclaimed that the ‘end of history’ and in the uni-polar world, declaring that respective position and share in the booty of various capitalist countries will be determined through the United Nations, IMF, World Bank, World Trade Organization, etc functioning under the leadership of US and anyone daring to deviate from this will be taught a bloody lesson.

But as Lenin, the great teacher of the proletariat, had shown a century ago the idea of a rules governed global imperialist system is not a reality but a mere figment of imagination and illusion. In the era of imperialism and monopoly capital, the characteristic law of uneven development of productive forces in capitalism becomes even more acute. Capitalist development slows down comparatively at some places and becomes faster at other places. Thus, the relative position of capitals of different capitalist countries keeps shifting and the once backward countries move ahead in terms of productive forces and capital accumulation. This makes the existing global division of spheres of influence for sourcing raw materials, goods export markets and export of surplus capital that cannot be absorbed as the domestic productive investment obsolete. The newer more developed capitalist countries now launch a campaign for a re-division of the world in their own favour. This uneven capitalist development in the era of monopoly capital and imperialism is bound to shatter any illusion of the so called unipolar rule based global order and this contention for re-division of the world inevitably gives rise to a test of military power among the contending imperialists. Thus the very dynamics of capitalism make war inevitable.

It was impossible for the post-1991 US-led unipolar rule-governed world to escape from this law of capitalism and imperialism. Therefore, the erstwhile dominant position of Western imperialism was being challenged from many sides. To deal with this challenge, Western imperialism targeted rival countries, tried to snatch their spheres of influence and imposed sanctions on them. The emergence of those countries as an opposing bloc was the unavoidable result. Countries like Russia, China, Iran had been posing challenges to the Western imperialist camp for their various interests for a long time. Now these three have emerged as an anti-Western imperialist axis which is challenging the Western imperialist axis to establish its own sphere of influence at the global level. The lust for dominance over the world among these predatory imperialist axes, especially every effort by US imperialism to preserve its dominance at all costs, is giving rise to conflicts and war at different places and now this has engulfed the whole world. This is what has pulled us all to the brink of another devastating war.

To illustrate this, instead of saying anything more on our part, we present an excerpt from British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s speech in Warsaw on April 23 in front of the British military regiment stationed in Poland, which summarizes the whole matter very clearly –

“I want to say to you something that will prepare you for your duty in an increasingly dangerous world. An axis of authoritarian countries with values different from ours, such as Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China, are becoming increasingly assertive. The risk posed by them is not new. What is new is that these countries, and their proxy agents, are creating more instability, more rapidly, in more places at once. And they are acting more and more together… They have made their effort to reshape the world order a common interest.”

It should be clearly understood that this conflict between the opposing blocs of imperialist capital contending to preserve or change the established position of western global dominance in their favour and seeking to bring the world under their respective spheres of influence. Neither of these camps is waging an anti-imperialist struggle. Hence any advocacy by the working class for one of these blocs as ‘less evil’ or anti-imperialist would be extreme opportunism. The only way to stop this war is for the working class of all belligerent countries to overthrow the capitalist regime in their own countries because it is capitalism that constantly and inevitably creates the danger of war.

Inability to Turn the War Decisive is Deepening the Capitalist Crisis

The reason this war not yet turning into a quick and decisive one is that both the camps have in their arsenal huge stockpiles of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Their use can give a decisive character to the war. But this decisive character can take a new form, that is, even the paradise of rich capitalists can become a part of destruction. This time any imperialist country will prove unsuccessful in escaping this humongous destruction.

Moreover, presently all the imperialist countries are facing the capitalist economic crisis owing to the tendency if falling rate of profit despite the brutal plunder of the world. Thus unlike in the times of first two world wars, they are incapable of buying support for imperialism by bribing a part of their own working class. They are continuously failing to do so. Increasing unemployment, skyrocketing inflation and falling effective wage rates after the global economic crisis have resulted in a huge and rapid decline in the standard of living of the working class even in the developed capitalist countries. Covid turned the situation extremely critical and the hellish life experience of the working class in these so-called developed capitalist paradises became more and more visible. This has given rise to a new rising wave of labor movements in these imperialist countries and the huge expenditure on wars around the world has become extremely unpopular, especially among the younger generations who are faced with the harsh and bitter realities of life. 76% of US youth under the age of 30 are against the policy of full unconditional support for Israel and ongoing protest in US universities and colleges is taking the form of a rebellion like the anti-Vietnam War movement, the spark of which has reached Europe as well. Therefore, the western imperialist camp is still trying to fight the war through its proxies.

But the full benefit of war for imperial capital is not possible without its turning decisive and victory for one side. Therefore, instead of providing an immediate solution to the global capitalist crisis, this war is deepening the crisis. It is certain that this war, like the two previous world wars, will end in an even bigger revolutionary upsurge of the working people, which will be even more bigger and powerful than the previous two. People around the world are already seeing that all types of capitalist rulers are pushing their people into slaughter for the sake of the capitalists of their country and none of them wants peace.

War is Pushing All Countries towards Fascism and Authoritarianism

The capitalist ruling class of the imperialist countries, the most experienced master of conspiracies and political maneuvers, has sensed this danger. This is the reason why these so-called liberal democratic paradises of ‘developed’ capitalism are rapidly giving up all their claims of being champions of freedom of expression and human rights and are turning into authoritarian police states adopting more or less fascist direction. Students, teachers and common people protesting in the universities and other places are being dealt with by anti-terrorism police. People are being fired from jobs just for criticizing Israel. Pro-Palestine events are being stopped even indoors with electricity being cut off, mobile phones checked for recordings and switched off. Round of arrests by breaking doors in the middle of the night are going on. In the propagated alternatives of the famed two-party bourgeois ‘democratic’ system of these countries, now the ‘less bad’ option is becoming eliminated as all these ruling parties with varied names – Republican or Democrat, Conservative or Liberal, Labour or Socialist, Social or Christian Democrats –  are now revealed as carriers of racist, militarist, warmonger, authoritarian and fascist tendencies in defence of monopoly capital and imperialism.